The President's Political Rorshach Test

In a moment of introspection and candor in his best-selling book "The Audacity of Hope", President Obama wrote, “I serve as a blank screen on which people of vastly different political stripes project their own views.” As his freshman Summer of Discontent gives way to what may well be a Fall of Frustration, his words seem profoundly prophetic.

In a demonstration of keen political acumen, the President's campaign deftly transformed him into the embodiment of two of the most powerful and raw forces coursing through the electorate last year - hope and change. With Shepard Fairey's iconic "Hope" poster reinforced by images of throngs of adulating voters inspired by his oratory prowess, the dreams and aspirations of millions played across the "screen" that is Obama like a panoramic Cecil B. DeMille epic. Indeed, one can easily imagine Obama leading the faithful off on their journey to the promised land of milk and honey ala Charlton Heston in "The Ten Commandments".

In stark contrast to his ardent supporters, the President's detractors saw him in equally vivid and evocative terms - disingenuous, cynical and dangerous. Damning him as duplicitous, they feverishly decried his failure to be candid on the extent of the change he truly sought. With great wailing and gnashing of teeth, the Conservative Cassandras warned the change he brought was not to Washington, but rather to the nation beyond the Beltway. Once ensconced at the pinnacle of political power, he would use it to bend the nation to the will of the rising Liberal leviathan he would preside over. In their view, an Obama presidency was a clear and present danger to our very way of life.

Though reality certainly lies somewhere in the middle, seven months into his term with the election receding into history, the President has done little to dispel either view of him. Being demonized by as many as beatify him, the question is what is the reality behind the images projected on the presidential "screen"?

Referring to a pragmatism that teetered on vacillation, James Carville once drew a dot in an empty circle and asked of Bill Clinton, what's at the center? What did he truly believe in? In light of the President's comment, the same could just as readily be asked of Obama.

What principals underpin and inform his policies? What positions are sacrosanct and non-negotiable? Having waged a crusade for the White House, what political ground does he consider holy and inviolable? To date, there is passingly little one can base any reasonable answer on.

Pardon me, but was that the faint refrain of The Who's "The Real Me" I hear in the distance? "Can you see the real me, can you, can you?"

Having farmed out the stimulus package, cap and trade and health reform to Speaker Pelosi and the House Democratic leadership, the President has displayed an uncanny ability to delegate policy while appearing to be engaged. Essentially, Obama has become the Cheerleader-In-Chief for an agenda that plays to the loftiest hopes of his most ardent supporters while reinforcing the worst fears of his timorous detractors. The result, though, is a lack of substantive leadership from the White House.

That being the case, one wonders what set of circumstances would be of such import to compel the President to step forward, lay his principals and beliefs bare to the world and unequivocally lead the nation down the path he and not others has chosen to take. Until such time he will remain a soulless political mirror and a two dimensional caricature.

Then again, perhaps that's nothing more than the image I'm projecting on the screen, faithful readers.

Stay tuned for further updates as events warrant and we see what the next feature is in the President's political matinee.

Once Upon A Time...A Fairy Tale of American Democracy

Despite the cacophony and chaos that has become the hallmark of congressional town hall health care reform meetings as of late, the President has nonetheless elected to embark on a series of his own.

Filled with pride, his supporters dutifully tout his bravery in the face of flagging poll numbers and dogged opposition. They swoon at the sight of their champion riding off to battle the forces of fear and hysteria with his cool demeanor, soft-spoken logic and zen-like rationality. They point to the subdued and respectful tone of his audiences as evidence that the fury over health care has reached it's zenith and will soon subside. Logic and reason will win the day and their knight in shining armor will deliver peace to the land and health care to it's weary people.

However, a closer, more objective look reveals something distinctly different from the fairy tale the President's supporters so eagerly espouse with starry-eyed devotion.

Are the President's forums more civil and placid in comparison to their raucous congressional counterparts? Clearly, but one should remain mindful of a few facts.

First, despite our partisan passions and philosophical differences, the vast majority of Americans remain respectful of the institution and office of the presidency. Regardless of the individual, there is a level of decorum and propriety that is inherent to the office. He is The President of the United States, a title of unrivaled weight and distinction in both our political system and national history.

Furthermore, beyond these intangible elements and social customs, there is the very real and tangible presence of the highly-trained, well-armed and psychologically-intimidating Secret Service. Should someone be so bold and dim-witted as to attempt to get in the President's face and shout him down, they would quickly find themselves forcefully removed from the venue and facing potential federal charges. The combination of these elements create an imposing atmosphere that discourages the catcalls and confrontations that have greeted Representatives and Senators in the dog days of their August break.

Indeed, despite the earnest hopes of the President's supporters, the fury over health care reform rages unabated. Moreover, in spite of his best efforts, the President's attempts to extinguish the populist wildfire have been for naught. Neither prime time White House press conferences nor intimate town hall meetings have had any impact whatsoever on public opinion towards the overhaul of the nation's health care system or their understanding of the details and components of the competing proposals.

Why is that, you ask? Because the President, much like the nation itself, knows dangerously little of the proposals' specifics. Nor, as demonstrated by his erroneous assertion of an AARP endorsement, does he know who supports what.

How can that be, you ask? Because the President is following and not leading.

Despite the President's references to "his proposals", the White House has failed to produce any bill whatsoever. Indeed, the confusing and contentious proposals at the heart of the conflagration are products of the House and Senate. Adding to the disoriented discourse is the fact the Senate bill remains a work in progress, still in the hands of negotiators in no less than three committees.

In light of the President's deference to the leadership of the House and Senate in drafting the proposals for health care reform, perhaps he and the nation would be better served if the authors of the bills, the committee chairs, Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid would take point in leading us through this steamy legislative jungle. Put the Speaker of the "People's House" in front of the people themselves, place the Majority Leader in front of the majority of Americans.

Pelosi and Reid are the elected leaders of the Democratic Party in Congress. They should embrace the principal enshrined in their party's name and eagerly engage in the discourse of our democracy. Allow them to unequivocally demonstrate that the courage of their convictions is equal to their desire for the speedy passage of their proposals. Indeed, if they wish to be the architects of the Republic's future, let them be as forthright as those who laid it's foundation in the past. That dialogue, between the people and their elected representatives is at the very heart of American democracy, after all.

Then again, perhaps that is nothing more than a quaint fable from the fairy tales of yore.

Once upon a time, faithful readers. Once upon a time in America.......

Stay tuned for further updates as events warrant and we see if there is indeed a happy ending to this story.

The Hubbub Over Health Care

With the recent hand-wringing and flurry of activity over health care reform, including the President's fourth primetime news conference, it would be perfectly understandable if one found themselves quoting Bugs Bunny and asking, "What's all the hubbub, Bub?" The answer, the President's assurances to the contrary notwithstanding, is simplicity itself.

Wait for it....Wait for it......

Politics.

Yes, despite the jubilant choruses of kumbayah that rang from sea to shining sea on Inaugural Day, Washington is yet again in the steely grip of.....wait for it.....politics. Moreover....gasp....partisan politics.

"Hold on", you say. "Didn't the President promise us change? Didn't he assure us that, yes, we could?"

Indeed, he did. The problem, however, is there is one thing neither the President nor Congress can change no matter how much they'd like - time.

Time waits for no man, however historical or profound they may ultimately be. This rule applies to the President as much as it does you and I. And when it comes to the President and health care reform, time is most definitely not on his side. Why is that, you ask?

Again, the answer is....wait for it......politics.

The President, keenly aware of time's inexorable march, eagerly longs for a vote on the health care overhaul sooner rather than later - with Senate Majority leader Harry Reid's announcement that the upper house would not take up the bill prior to the August recess, it appears that vote will indeed be later. Nonetheless, among the political concerns that compel the President to anxiously watch the clock and calendar are....

- Fear of the ides of August. Though a soothsayer bade Julius Caesar to beware the ides of March, it is their August counterpart that haunts the Obama administration. By the month's midpoint, members of Congress will have been on their recess for two weeks. The White House dreads the probability that not only those first two weeks, but the whole month will be dominated by non-stop haranguing over the Byzantine reform bill at the hands of cantankerous constituents. With Democratic Blue Dogs in the House and fiscal Conservatives in the Senate already balking at the gargantuan costs and projected deficits the overhaul would trigger, the administration fears the weak-willed and faint of heart in both houses may succumb to the incessant barrage of criticism and consternation over the coming month. Contrary to what Speaker Pelosi has assured the White House, they believe not only does she not have the votes to pass it now, but come the end of the August recess, she may well have even fewer still.

- Mid-Term Mania and Re-Election Ramp Up. Learning from his previous experience in the Clinton administration, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel insists that the first year of an administration is critical in terms of passing it's policy agenda. He could not be more correct. Passing health care reform is a part of Obama's lofty agenda as well as a tangible and substantial accomplishment he can tout during the '12 campaign. Failing to do so will disappoint millions and leave a considerable chink in his political armor, but will most likely fail to be the political Waterloo that South Carolina Senator and would-be political oracle Jim DeMint prophesized. Nonetheless, for all intents and purposes, the end of the calendar year is the deadline for a comprehensive health care package till 2011, if not 2013.

Once Congress returns from it's end of the year holiday break in January, the focus will be on the upcoming mid-term election on November 2nd next year. Accordingly, raising campaign money and avoiding the ire of constituents will be the order of the day. Therefore, the odds of any significant legislation passing, much less one that impacts a sixth of the nation's economy, are exceedingly slim to say the least.

Moreover, there is mounting concern both on Capitol Hill and in the White House that the economy may continue to languish and remain stubbornly mired in recession. If that's the case, the focus will be on staving off a massacre of Congressional Democrats at the polls. Though many activists will insist that passing health reform is a vital part of the Party's defense, the more pragmatic and politically palatable course will be extending unemployment benefits in conjunction with a possible second stimulus package. Even this may face internal party opposition from the Blue Dog Coalition, leery of facing deficit-enraged voters in the fall.

A growing fear within the White House is that 21 months into his term on Election Day next year, the public will no longer be inclined to give the President and his party the benefit of the doubt at the polls. Should we remain in the grip of the economic doldrums, voters will view it as Obama's recession. That being the case, the odds are exceedingly high the electorate will vent their spleen and punish Obama and his fellow political travelers at the ballot box in the process. Not only does this have the potential to weaken the Democratic majority and empower the Republicans and their fiscally conservative Blue Dog allies in the House, there is the possibility of a political tsunami large enough to sweep the Grand Old Party back into power in Congress's lower house.

Even should the mid-term fail to return the Republicans to power in the House, the remainder of the President's term will be focused on shoring up his position for and conducting his 2012 re-election campaign. If the political waters run red with blood in the wake of next year's election, visions of Jimmy Carter and 1980 will dance like sugarplums in Republican heads. The problem with this, however, is two-fold.

First, Barack Obama is no Jimmy Carter. Obama is energetic, articulate and possessed of an almost zen-like political intuition. He is an ardent campaigner whose political legs remain strong and in running shape. Additionally, he will not reprise Carter's political impersonation of Mr. Rogers - no sweaters by the fireside and monotone monologues on malaise for this President.

Second, though Obama may emerge wounded from next year's mid-terms, Republicans still can't beat something with nothing. They need look back no farther than 1996 to see how a Democratic president can turn a mid-term massacre into a re-election victory. If they hope to regain the hallowed political ground of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, they must put up a worthy and credible candidate and not reprise the folly of Bob Dole's sacrificial candidacy. Obama and his political guru David Axelrod know this and will be prepared accordingly; Republicans would be well advised to do likewise. If not, they may find the tables have turned with an incumbent Obama slyly whistling the Rolling Stones' classic, "Time Is On My Side".

You're searching for good times, faithful readers. But just wait and see. You'll come running back.

Stay tuned for further updates as events warrant and we see if indeed the President won't have to worry no more.

America's $7 Trillion Hangover

According to CreditSights, a research firm in New York and London, the U.S. government has put itself on the hook for some $5 trillion, so far, in an attempt to arrest a collapse of the financial system. In addition to the $5 trillion identified by CreditSights, there are rumblings on the horizon of a growing storm of consumer credit card and college loan defaults. Some estimates place the potential amount between $1.5 and $2 trillion. Add to this the potential collapse of the commercial real estate sector that needs an estimated $800 billion in refinancing next year from what increasingly looks like a dry credit well. With the financial and banking sector unwilling to take the losses, the American taxpayer may well be placed on the hook for what is ultimately $7 to 8 trillion dollars over the course of just 24 months; that in addition to a National Debt that has continued to grow by an average of $3.95 billion a day since September, 2007. Rounded to $4 billion a day, the President’s proposed automakers bailout only amounts to four days worth of additional national debt. At that rate, why not go ahead and take Friday off? Maybe we’ll save an additional $4 billion?! I know, I know; it doesn’t work that way. But it’s a nice a thought, nonetheless. As of today, each citizen's share of the National Debt is $34,851.77. On average, Bare Knuckled readership runs at about 68 faithful readers and wandering souls a day. So, if all the Bare Knuckled faithful would be so kind as to send their checks off to the Treasury for their share this afternoon, collectively we could knock out our $2,404,772.10 share of the tab. On the other hand, were all my 361 Twitter friends and followers to fire off their checks to Washington today, we’d cover a none too shabby $12,581,488.97 worth of the bill. While I'm sure Hank Paulson would be oh so appreciative and inspired by our selfless act of noble citizenship, at a party that's running up a roughly $4 billion bar tab a day, that's not even a round of well shots, much less top shelf or my personal favorite, Jagermeister. As I told my American Government class recently, what is truly frightening is the increasing ease with which commentators, politicians and governmental officials use the term “trillions of dollars”. We're long past the fabled "a billion here, a billion there and pretty soon you're talking about real money." Make no mistake about it. This is GENERATIONAL debt we're talking about here. Debt that will outlive the political leaders, captains of industry and fallen financial titans responsible for it by decades and yes, generations. Despite this, Democrats in Congress and the President-elect have been tossing around $700 to $800 billion figures for a proposed fast-tracked stimulus package that would await his signature soon after his recitation of the Oath of Office. No doubt Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid will use the deepening recession as justification to move ahead with a universal health care program that conservative estimates indicate will add an additional $100 to $150 billion dollars to the annual budget deficit a year. With inflation, that's quickly headed towards tossing another $1.75 to $2 trillion on to the National Bar Tab over a decade. Then again, when you're running trillion dollar-plus deficits annually and toss on between $5 and $8 trillion in a single a year, what's another $100 billion between friends? The problem is no one's had the good sense to close the tab, much less give any serious thought as to how we're going pay it off. To hell with the hangover, this should instantly sober up every American from the halls of Congress to baby's lying in maternity wings with an instant $35,000 IOU attached to their birth certificates. I'm not fool or arrogant enough to think I have the answer that will magically get us out of the dire straits we currently find ourselves in. However, I would dare say a first step is to take a deep breath, calm down and look at the long term, generational impact of the decisions that are currently being considered by our leaders. Put the shot glass down, close the tab, step away from the bar, drink a pot of coffee, toss back some Tylenol and think this thing through. Failing that, we're going to drink ourselves to death and leave our children, grand children and great grand children to struggle to pay off the tab. Last call, faithful readers? Stay tuned for further updates as events warrant and the demon in the bottle seductively asks, "What harm can one more round do? Just one more round...."