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I'm thinking that it is going to be RON PAUL (just kidding/hoping)

My guess largely depends on how Obama does over the next 4 years:
-If he does very well then the GOP will be forced to move left to be in contention.

-If he does poorly then the GOP can move farther right (especially if Obama comes off as overly socialist)

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Help me understand the motivating thoughts of a potential GOP candidate.

It's early 2007, the Iraq war is going badly, the president's approval rating is in the 4-touchdown range, Scooter's been convicted, Katrina's blown through etc etc and thoughtful conservatives are questioning the administration's direction.

The 2006 mid-terms were a disaster, Hillary is circling, world opinion is hardening against us and there's word that Obama fellow, the black guy from Illinois, might be trying for some hail mary.

Do I (a) conclude it's more than likely the GOP will be sent to the naughty corner and resolve not to be the party's sacrificial lamb? (b) remember that it's not over 'til it's over and that with solid policies and enough swiftboating the divided left will once again be left outside? (c) consider, given my age, that I've got nothing to lose and might as well give it a spin? (d) remain convinced in the integrity of my views, and those of my party, and drive on to prove that the electorate will favor substance over flash? or (e) or (f) or (g)?

Giving up is clearly not an option, but is there any point at which my personal interests give way to the party's interests? Or even the country's interests?

Not that the answers might be any different for a dem, but...just wondering.

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Right now, the two most popular seem to be Palin and Bobby Jindal. Having see the storm she created in her VP run, he has the opportunity to beat her handily, but they will both have four more years of executive experience come 2012. I can't see Huckabee going anywhere, but he will screw over someone's odds the way he did Romney last time. I wonder if either will run again, though. Tim Pawlenty (MN) will probably run too.

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i think after four years of obama, the GOP could pick a skunk for their nominee and win because after four years, the term "democrat" will become synonymous with "police state" and "communist" to all americans.

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Hoping Public opinion changes fast ? right noe Obama remains very popular

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Karl Rove is a genius, I will admit, but he is the same kind of genius that Herr Goebbels was for the Nazi party. He is demonstrably evil and has no moral compass whatsoever. Is he really the kind of man you are proud to represent your party? If he is, I sincerely hope the GOP never sees the inside of the White House again.

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No, I equate "police state" in my mind with the Republicans' "Patriot Act" , warrantless wiretapping, electronic voting box rigging, torture of prisoners, and suspension of Habeas Corpus.
Obama has yet to do anything one hundrendth as horrendous as any of that.
Oh, yeah. He wants all Americans to have access to health care, not just the rich. Whoo-hoo. Sounds pretty commie, all right. I'm sure that will p**s off a lot of the middle class.
Oh, yeah- he stopped the economic free fall Bush put us into and has already turned all the major economic indicators around, to the praise of world leaders of the G8. No doubt that will be looked upon poorly.
You're grasping at straws, there, fella. Who you trying to convince, us or yourself?
However, I do hope you're right - that the GOP picks a skunk for their nominee. At least that would be a step up from whom they've given us since Nixon.

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As this post was originally about the 2012 election I want to hop back to that. After drafting through thousands of polls(that is my job) I have found that Obama will probably have some trouble in the 2012 election. With young voters and black voters not being as excited as they were about 2008 he could have problems. Here is a list of names that came to mind when I thought of the 2012 election. Next to them is why they will or will not be running and their chances according to the raw data and how I think President Obama's Favorability will be in 2012.

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist- Will have a successful Senate run in 2010 Highly unlikely to run for President. He would carry the state of Florida and give Obama a run for his money ( he will run for Pres. in 2016 so why run now?)

Former House speaker Newt Gingrich- Everyone leaves him out including himself, but it is not an impossibility. Newt would fair well in an election with Obama. He has the experience but if Obama is doing well in 2012 Newt has no chance. It would be his last "HOORAH"

Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani- Did someone say "no". Yes well so did I. The savior of New York will remain in New York he will run in a tough election next year for either Senate or Gov. He will never again win a single state in the Republican primary so why try.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee- He will be back with more support than last year. His problem: Sarah Palin. They will take many votes in the primaries from each other. During the actual Presidential race he will not win unless President Obama makes a big slipup or the economy crashes. Tell Huckabee to stay on his show: lots of money and little stress.

Louisianna Gov. Bobby Jindal- No not in 2012 but def. in 2016. He is a powerhouse and Obama would have had trouble beating him in 2012 if he were to run. He will bide his time but he is still young so he has that time.

Congressman from Texas Ron Paul- I think Congressman Paul has waved the white flag on his Presidential ambitions. He may run in the primary just for kicks but any serious shot at the whitehouse faded in '08. Sorry Dr. Paul but you have a had a powerful impact on US politics. He will be 78 in 2012

Former Alaskan Gov. Sarah Palin- Shes back but she is not a Maverick, now she is "Going Rouge". Sarah will be a frontrunner for republicans in 2012. Her popularity rating will never again soar above fifty percent. She cannot beat President Obama without him shooting himself in the foot.

Congressman from California Duncan Hunter- I think you will def. see him in 2008. He will also have a much better chance since he was around in 2008. He would give a little new life to the Republicans but would have major issues defeating not only the President but getting out of the primary.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty- Gov. Tim 2012 is your year to shine. I believe that Tim Pawlenty will also be in the run for President in 2012. I think that he would have the best chance at unseating the President at the current time.

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney –Frontrunner 2012, the only problem is the general election. He has great background on business and would “understand the economy” but the chance of him beating the President are slim to none.

South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford- Would make a great President… Wait whats that? … Ohh yea that’s right he just ruined his chance to run for President by cheating on his wife. Props to you Mark.

Solution: In order from most likely to win R nomination in 2012
1. Mitt Romney 2. Sarah Palin(If Huckabee doesn’t run move up to first) 3. Ron Paul 4. Mike Huckabee(if Palin doesn't run move to second) 5. Newt Gingrich 6.Duncan Hunter7. Tim Pawlenty

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